In 2012 the price gap between WCS oil (Canadian Select) and WTI (Texas oil) increased in percentage terms after having narrowed in 2011 (by 11%). Also to consider is European Crude (brent crude) which exceeds WTI by $20 to $30.
Positive influences: 1. Enbridge reversing the direction of oil flow through its Seaway Pipeline (Oklahoma--> Gulf Coast 1.4 mbpd) which made it easier for buyers to access Canadian oil/reduced supply glut (as a result, WTI price revised upwards to $118 at JP Morgan). 2. Better heavy crude oil conversion in PADD II (Petroleum Administration for Defence Districts II in North-Central USA, the location of refineries which process over half of Canada's oil). 3. a wider gap provides powerful incentive for companies and governments to build the infrastructure needed to transport the oil to regions that earn a higher return. In Canada, spending by oil companies accounts for 3% of gdp. Negative influences: lack of refineries in western Canada, lack of pipelines from Western to Eastern Canada, New England.
Alberta oil production becoming more energy efficient: In 2013 Cenovus Energy's Christina Lake project needed 1.8 barrels of steam to produce 1 barrel of oil, that's down from 1.9 barrels in 2012. One way Canadian companies are lowering energy requirements is by mixing the steam with butane, more oil output per barrel of steam: lower steam to oil ratio.
Canadian oil price differential expected to remain under $20 for the foreseeable future, well into 2016. A couple reasons for this
Facts: 44% of crude oil processed at Canadian refineries comes from international sources, something that's bound to change given that much of the foreign oil is purchased at higher prices than oilsands oil and that oilsands producers are in need of Eastern Canada's oil refining capacity. 2013 - Imperial Oil closes its 70th boe/d Dartmouth refinery.
2014-2035: Canadian oil output to increase 75% to 5.8m bpd, according to NEB report. This Over the same timeframe Canadian demand up +28%, 20% lower due to efficiencies in per unit economic output. Jobs in Canada tied to oil sands to increase 75,000 -> 900,000 over 25 years - remember oil production also growing in Saskatchewan and East Coast.
Cenovus Energy, one of the largest in terms of total resource (140 billion boe) is jointly partnered with ConocoPhillips at a number of projects; those projects are expected to double production over the next 4 years (2013 to 2017) with some of the boost coming from Narrows Lake. liquids capacity 2014 -> 2023: 435th -> 525th bpd. January 2014 proved reserves up +5% to 2.3b boe (bitumen accounts for 80%). from 3q2012 -> 4q2013 Christina Lake alone increased output from 42th -> 61,471 boe/d (up 47%). Royalties lowest at Christina Lake ($2.72/bbl in 2013, $2.32 4q) vs $3.34 Pelican / $5.72 oil sands. Imperial Oil is also heavily invested in the oil sands ($11b Kearl project). CVE Quick Analysis: Integrated oil company so crack spread affects earnings. 3% dividend yield, average valuation but high quality assets. TransCanada $12b Energy East Pipeline
Teck Resources - holds 20% share in Alberta's next mega oil project Fort Hills. The $13.5 billion project won't begin producing oil until 2017. The project is a joint venture between Suncor 40.8% (2P 1.2b barrels), Total 39.2%, Teck 20%. Teck is in a nice position too - has $2b cash with only $300m in debt due over next 3 years (as of Jan 2014), $2b credit facility.
Oct 21: Canadian oil companies absent from Brazil's massive offshore Libra oil field - oil field containing 12 billion barrels will be developed by Petrobras and a consortium of foreign companies including Shell, Total, CNOOC, China National Petroleum Corporation. Nov 2013: Carl Icahn ups stake in Talisman Energy to 6.96%.
Nov 7: Crescent Point Energy revises production guidance up ! 2013 average rate now estimated @119,000 boe/d (up from 118,500); exit year rate 124,000 boe/d (up from 119,000). Used 85% of $1.5b annual capex.
December 2013 - November US oil inventories -5.59m barrels vs -0.5m est.
data in the following tables comes from 2013, 2012, 2011 annual reports, 40-f filings, 10-k presentations, management discussion and analysis documents
According to Meg Energy the Blend vs WTI % differential was 31.2% in 2012 up from 23.5% in 2011. In 2q2013 the differential fell to 27.1% from 31.6%. 3q2013 refinery crack spread plummets : $35 -> $16.
Canada oil reserves @175 billion barrels -2013 US Energy Admin.
Risks to Canadian production: Leadership changes in Venezuela (211b boe reserves) and Mexico (11 to 22b boe) could potentially make them stable, efficient suppliers. This is because so far, politics have kept foreign investment out, making it difficult for companies to upgrade to the technology needed to develop their oil which like Canada's, is unconventional. 2006-2012 US imports: Mexico (-30%), Venezuela (-41% to 1.0m boe/d). November 8: asphalt company NuStar Energy ends oil contract with Venezuela (PDVSA) - 30,000 bpd lost represents 4% of US-Venezuela oil imports - replaced with Alberta naphthenic crude imported to East Coast by rail.
recommended oil stock: CanElson Drilling Inc - operates land-based contract drilling rigs throughout North America. CVE:CDI - highest utilization rates in the industry. Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (cos) owns 36.74% of the Syncrude oilsands project - share of proved reserves total 1.8b barrels out of 4.8b total. Trouble with machinery (boiler/coker) cut 2013 annual production estimate from 105-115 to 97-100 million barrels.
Quebec- Wind power not economically feasible. each job created costs $200th per year in subsidies but pays only $40th. this loss is passed onto consumers (-> 4.3% inflation in power rates)
3q 2013: Talisman and PennWest lower output. PennWest outlines plan to sell $1.5-$2.0b of non core assets in order to reset balance sheet and reach sustainability ratios of 110%. 3q production down 17% to 133,712 bpd. total debt down $1 billion to $3.0b, capital expenditure down (3q $405m -> $55m, 9m $1053m ->$556m). North Sea asset sale to Chinese company cost Talisman 67th bpd net of royalties in 9m2013. 3q2013: CNRL quarterly dividend up +60%.
Meg Energy - During the month of January 2014, Meg transported 20% of its entire production by rail (6 trains 60,000 barrels each). This enabled it to transport the oil to North American refining regions where heavy oil commands a higher price.. as opposed to areas where there's a glut of supply .. oil gets sold at a discounted price. Meg 2014 results- 2P reserves 2497B half probable up 9.6%; production on track to reach 260th bpd by 2020. 2013 avg output 35,317 +6,644, 42,251 bpd in 4Q13 +9,959 net operating costs per barrel $10.01 +$0.03; royalties $3.14 +0.68; results were worst in the 4Q (transportation costs double @0.51/bbl, royalties lower @2.71 but oil price realized -$11 vs full year ($38.22 vs $49.28). revenue was highest in Q3 ($401.8m +88%).
State-owned CNOOC of China credits Nexen acquisition with 8% boost in 1h2013 earnings ($5.8b). 12.5% of first half oil output came from Nexen (24.8/198.1 million barrels). In the long-run, Calgary benefits from the deal - cnooc makes Calgary head office of North, South American operations. cnooc to list on Toronto Stock Exchange. In September 2013 China imported more oil than the US for the first time ever: China: 6.3mbpd (production 10.9mbpd vs consumption 4.6mbpd). USA: 6.1mbpd (prod 18.6mbpd vs cons 12.5mbpd).
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Best estimate contingent resource 2014: Canadian Oil Sands Ltd: 5100 million (-100) 1900 net (no change) 30+ years Meg Energy: 3700 million (+300)
Only top 11 shown. Canada is home many other major companies including ARC Energy; Pacific Rubiales Energy (shares interest in oil fields responsible for a third of Colombian production). Calgary is home to over 2400 oil and gas companies. Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec which manages among other things the Quebec pension plan, owns 5.9% of Enbridge ($2.7 billion), total interest in oil sands companies is $5.4 billion. Carl Icahn owns 6.96% of TLM.
Investor positives - Cenovus Energy - WCS and WTI price difference currently near 5-year low (2013) bodes well for heavy oil producer Cenovus. Owns 50% interest in 2 ConocoPhillips American refineries (downstream) - this is great for Cenovus Energy since this gives it stable access to American refineries for heavy oil upgrading and refining - glut of supply of Canadian crude in Northern states is one reason why other Canadian producers are having a difficult time getting their oil to market (pipeline tracks limit their access to other refineries) - this makes the Illinois refinery particularly valuable. Over the next 5 years Cenovus is investing $5b in its current projects Encana - For the first time company leaders are focused on increasing shareholder value. At $3.60/mmcf (July 2013) the price of natural gas is up almost $1.00 versus the previous year but EnCana stock is 20% lower. - share buyback plan. EnCana 2013 exit year strategy: oil liquids output to 70th bpd. Suncor - organic growth, dividend growth has recently put it ahead of cnrl and imperial oil (13c vs 12c). August 2013 - Berkshire Hathaway reveals $620m invested in major oilsands player Suncor. Cenovus Energy - 2013 9M oil royalties down : $6.91->$5.28/bbl, Christina Lake +63% -> 52,732 b/d. earnings 3q +28% but 9M -35%. Husky Energy - 3q2013 profit -3% as refinery crack spread narrows: 9-months $24.45 vs 27.50 but 3-mo $15.86 vs $35.18.
Crescent Point Energy major moves in 2012 boost total output by 34% (crude +35% ->89,704 bbls/d, gas +25.7% -> 9,047 boe/d). 2012 deals: Jan 25 - adds 980 bpd in SW Manitoba, March 15 - Takeover of Wild Stream Exploration adds 5,400 bpd in Shaunavon, Saskatchewan, March 16 - Deal with PetroBakken involves 2,900 bpd light oil SE Saskatchewan, April 16 - Sells 900 boe/d 80% oil in Alberta, May 1 - Takeover of Reliable Energy Ltd and its 1,000 boe/d light oil resource in SW Manitoba, June 1 - Agreement closed involving 2,900 boe/d 98% oil, June 20 - Takeover of Cutpick Energy Inc and its 5,600 boe/d resource near Provost, Alberta (65% light oil), July 17 - Sells 225 boe/d natural gas assets. How did all the moves impact annual sales? 2012 oil revenue +24% $2.643b, gas -15% $51.813b. CPE Deal of the Year : November 29, 2012 acquisition of UTE Energy Upstream Holdings (private) for $861m - gave it 7,800 bpd oil production, 400+ 100% owned low risk vertical well drilling locations, +55.1m 2P reserves (37.6m proved). Total revenue +23% even though average price realized down: oil -8.1% -> $80.51, gas -32.6% -> $2.61, total -8.3% -> $74.57. CPE quarterly dividend high at 69c a share.
Crescent Point fiscal 2013: total boe production average up 21.8% to 120,288 boe/d (liquids 89,704-> 109,129 bpd / gas 9,074-> 11,159); revenue 3.526b up 31% earnings $144.876m (vs 190.653m down 24%) but operating income up 60% to 485.688m; fewer acquisitions mean lower transaction costs -65% to $5.761b; long term debt +18% to 1,734.114m; average selling price up for crude oil (+7% -> $86.32) and natural gas (+38% -> $3.61); total up 8% $74.57 -> $80.32; royalties per boe: $12.95-> $14.67 +13%
9M2013: selling price: oil $87.60/bbl (vs $81.16), gas $3.51/mcf (vs $2.31), combined $81.39 (+8%), royalties/boe: $14.95 (vs $12.97). 3Q2013: oil $97.54/bbl (vs $78.20) gas $3.01 (vs $2.40), combined $90.38 +26%. royalties/boe: $17.59 (vs $12.47).
Syncrude April 30, 2013: Unplanned outages reduce 2013 full year production estimate by 5% to 100-110 million boe. Average daily production in the first quarter of 2013 was 260,400 boe/d (-12%). 2013 1q earnings down -44% on lower output and lower crude price (total revenue down -11% to $961m). The company is part owned by Sinopec. Core properties are joint ventures with Cnooc, Imperial Oil.
CNRL: 9M2013 - total production boosted by significant growth in the 3q (584,577 -> 619,800 bpd 70% liquids/30% gas). 3q output pushed higher by much higher increase in oil sands mining and upgrading unit (95,074 -> 104,627; by comparison for the 9-month period that unit was up only 83,004->91,304 so the 3q really was amazing). North Sea production down (3q 15,481 -20%, 9m 17,664 -12%). 3q record cash flow of $2.45 billion +71%. WCS differential: 9M 23% (stable) 3Q 16% (vs 20%). realized pricing per barrel: 9M $75.32 (vs $74.60), 3Q $89.24 (vs $75.10). 9M capital expenditures - $5.183b +14%. 3Q2013 cash flow highest on record at $2.45b.
2012 reserve replacement ratio of 246% (5% increase in reserves equals 2.46X full year production); in 2011 the ratio was 390%. 2012 bitumen royalties of $4.34/bbl (+8.8%). synthetic crude oil sands output : 2012 86,077 bbls/d +45,643. fiscal 2012 production expense: company average : $13.14/bbl (+6%); oil liquids $16.11/bbl (+2%), gas $1.31/mmcf (+14%); oil highest in North Sea ($53.53 +44%) lowest in North America ($13.4 +1%); gas highest in North Sea ($3.75 +0.92) lowest in North America ($1.28 +0.16). profit down $0.75b vs +$1b in 2011.
Husky Energy HUSKF: Major gas exploration project is in Liwan, China. Husky Energy is also contemplating exploration in Greenland. Has interests in White Rose (Canadian East Coast) which Suncor Energy owns 26.125% of. 2011 reserve replacement ratio: 180%. Reserve life index now at 10.3 years. Husky produces in western and atlantic canada. International production comes from China Wenchang (light crude and ngls) - 7,400 b/d 9m2013 (2012: 8.3, 2011: 8.6).
Talisman Energy TLM: 9M2013: December 2012 sold 49% interest in Talisman Energy UK to Sinopec subsidiary Addax Petroleum for $1.5 billion - that move is part of the reason North Sea output down 67,000 bpd in 9m2013. Carl Icahn ups stake to 6.96%.
9M2013: gross production 368th b/d (2012 437, 2011 421). net production 285th (2012 358, 2011 348).
production from assets sold: 9M2013: nothing 9M2012: 5,000 bpd (gross), 4,000 bpd (net) 9M2011: 8,000 (gross), 7,000 (net)
Talisman Energy fiscal 2012 - sold 49% of British operations to Sinopec for $2.5 billion (North Sea). Also during the last three months of 2012 the company announced a major oil discovery in Kurdistan. For the 2012 year, cash flow (-12.0% to $3.022b), earnings (-83.0% to $132m) down significantly. Financials were down in 2012 due to 1) lower North Sea production 2) lower gas prices in North America 3) higher operating costs. gross production: Oil 162th (-16th) + N.Gas 1582 bcf (+91) = 426 boe (steady)
Imperial Oil Esso IMO: 9M2013: capex $6,453m +66% (vs $3,890). Maintenance at Syncrude lowered 3Q gross production by -21th bpd; refinery throughput 451,000 bpd (flat). Kearl expansion now 58% complete. Lower industry refining margins affected earnings bigtime : 3q2013 -38% to $647m | 9m2013 -34% to $1,772m.
Between 2010 and 2011 the number of wells Imperial Oil had interests in declined significantly for natural gas (gross: 5372--> 2404, net: 2833--> 847) but went up for crude oil (gross: 883--> 1070, net 588--> 734). Bitumen wells down also (4358--> 4068). 2011 exit-year 60% of net proved reserves (3.191 billion boe) are at undeveloped properties up from 47% in December 2010. Today (2012) 77% of oil reserves are in bitumen, up from 70% in December 2010. Feb 26, 2013: IMO acquires 50% working interest in assets formerly belonging to Celtic Exploration from ExxonMobil Canada ($1.55 billion). 76% of Celtic's 128m barrels of 2P reserves are in natural gas.
9m2012: earnings up +13.7%: $2366m --> $2690m or $2.77 --> $3.16 per share. gross production decreased (299,000 --> 281,000) due to planned maintenance at Cold Lake and Syncrude, and fewer natural gas assets than in 2011.
9m2012 gross -> net production: Cold Lake: 154 -> 120, Syncrude: 70 -> 67, Conventional: 20 -> 15, Natural Gas: 194 -> 197
Crescent Point Energy CPG: Market cap is larger than Nexen and Penn West however production is much lower. The company anticipates 2012 exit-year output of 93,000 boe/d, 90% light medium oil.
Encana ECA: On December 18, 2012 announced that it and Ferus LNG will build a 190,000 litre per day liquefied natural gas plant near grand prairie, Alberta. when operational end of 2013 will be the first in Canada to produce high quality LNG fuel for use in high horsepower vehicles. 3q2013: major layoffs - 20% of workforce to be laid off (800 people). Company aims to improve its balance sheet while also narrowing focus down to to five key resource plays (from 30). Is also creating a separate company to handle mineral rights and royalty interests in Southern Alberta (ipo during summer of 2014).
In 2011 Encana saved $12m by using natural gas instead of diesel in drilling units.
Acquisitions: $361m worth of land in Canada and the United States (down from $468m last year)
Nexen Inc: 2012: Nexen's royalty rates paid on natural gas were highest in the USA, accounted for 7.9% of gross prod (126--> 116) vs 5.0% in Canada, 0% in UK. Oil Royalties: UK was virtually nothing (104.9 gross --> 104.8 net), long lake bitumen (15.9--> 15.1), syncrude (21.2--> 19.6) usa (9.9--> 9.0). Yemen remained the highest (41.3--> 23.1). Feb 24: 1st oil from Usan field, offshore W.Africa. 2011: Nexen invested $2,516 m in oil and gas activities, causing reserves to increase 73M boe for proved, 175m boe for probable.
Nexen's realized prices: oil was highest in Yemen (108.11 up from 81.86). Natural gas realized price was highest in UK (c$7.42/mmcf up from $5.28 in 2010). In the USA ($4.21 -0.76) and Canada ($3.44 -0.50) it was low.
PennWest Petroleum PWE: In early-mid 2012 the market price for Canadian oil (WCS) was as much as $25 lower than US oil prices making it more difficult for Canadian producers to adjust to lower overall prices. In it's second quarter (2012) Penn West cited that as the main reason why net income was down -13.3% that quarter; To adjust, the company laid out a new plan that involves capital spending cuts (-10%) and selling assets ($1.5 billion worth). 2012 full year production estimate was lowered from 168,500 - 172,500 bpd --> 165,000 - 168,500 bpd.
9M2012: liquids make up 66% of production mix up from 63%. netback -12.5% to $26.49 boe ($30.28). capex -27% to $1,053m ($1,443). risk lowered earnings from a gain of $138m in 3Q2011 to a loss of $67m in 3Q2012. Quarterly dividend of 27 cents has been unchanged for over 2 years.
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ: Production base is diverse and that enables it to withstand fluctuating commodity prices and regional production inconsistencies. In 2011 average sales price of crude oil (net of transportation and blending costs) was $77.46/bbl +17.7% vs 2010 ($65.81/bbl). Crude oil sales price was significantly higher in the 4q vs the 3q ($85.28 vs $73.80) consequently royalties paid were also higher ($12.3/bbl over the fully year 2011 up from $10.09/bbl in 2010; $15.53 in 4q up from $11.52 in the 3q).
Crude oil and natural gas prices were highest in the North Sea ($108.56 up from $82.49) and Offshore Africa ($105.53 up from $78.93) but still very low in North America ($72.17 up from $62.28) and that brought the company average up only 17.7% to $77.46 (from $65.81 in 2010). Natural gas prices Offshore Africa were significantly higher at $9.56/Mcf ($6.63 in 2010) compared to only $3.64 and $4.07 in North America and North Sea, respectively. CNRL profited nearly $1 billion more in 2011 than in 2010 ($2643 million +58%) even though revenue was up only +6.9% to $15.507b. For the year, the company paid $294 million more in royalties ($1421--> $1715).
CNRL reserves December 2011: 4.83 billion boe of proved reserves (+7%). 2P: natural gas +25% North Sea (134 Bcf), -6.5% Offshore Africa (129 Bcf), +5.7% North America (5838 Bcf). 96% of production happened in G8 countries making the company's assets fairly stable. 2012 quarterly dividend will go up 17% (0.09 to 0.105). In 2011 CNRL replaced 390% of its production and that caused a jump of 7% in proved reserves.
Note: Exports of natural gas from Canada require the approval of the NEB and Canadian government. Data in table is gross output before royalties. Pacific Rubiales Energy not listed because net production is much lower than it is for these nine companies (even though PRE gross production is greater than a few of them).
Cenovus Energy CVE: 2013 9-month royalties paid down oil: $5.28/bbl (from $6.91) gas: $0.05/mmcf (from $0.03).
oil production anticipated to grow 14% in 2013, oil sands production up 44% in 3Q2012 to 95,000 bpd
table above: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd total proved bitumen reserves +9% to 1.066b (2P +23% 2.122b), oil sands production more than doubled to 86,077. Canadian Oil Sands reserve life based on 2012 production is 42 years (110 million barrels 40.4m net). Cdn Oil Sands averaged 290th bpd output over last 6 years; 2012 production 286,500 bpd (104.9m barrels total) down from 288,400 (105.3m total) despite capex +68.9% to $1.086 billion. MEG Energy Christina Lake can support production capacity of 200th for 30 years, Surmont 100th for 20 years.
Updated March 2014