In 2012 the price gap between WCS oil (Canadian Select) and WTI (Texas oil) increased in percentage terms after having narrowed in 2011 (by 11%).  Also to consider is European Crude (brent crude) which exceeds WTI by $20 to $30.

Positive influences:  1. Enbridge reversing the direction of oil flow through its Seaway Pipeline (Oklahoma--> Gulf Coast 1.4 mbpd) which made it easier for buyers to access Canadian oil/reduced supply glut (as a result, WTI price revised upwards to $118 at JP Morgan). 2. Better heavy crude oil conversion in PADD II (Petroleum Administration for Defence Districts II in North-Central USA, the location of refineries which process over half of Canada's oil).  3. a wider gap provides powerful incentive for companies and governments to build the infrastructure needed to transport the oil to regions that earn a higher return.  In Canada, spending by oil companies accounts for 3% of gdp.  Negative influences: lack of refineries in western Canada, lack of pipelines from Western Canada to Eastern Canada, New England.

All of the data in the following tables comes from 2013, 2012, 2011 annual reports, 40-f filings, 10-k presentations, management discussion and analysis documents.           

Also of interest: 44% of crude oil processed at Canadian refineries came from international sources, something that's bound to change given that much of the foreign oil is purchased at higher prices than oilsands oil and that oilsands producers are in need of Eastern Canada's oil refining capacity.                                                                   

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Canada oil reserves @175 billion barrels -2013 US Energy Admin.

Risks to Canadian production: Leadership changes in Venezuela (211b boe reserves) and Mexico (11 to 22b boe) could potentially make them stable, efficient suppliers.  This is because so far, politics have kept foreign investment out, making it difficult for companies to upgrade to the technology needed to develop their oil which like Canada's, is unconventional. 2006-2012 US imports: Mexico (-30%), Venezuela (-41% to 1.0m boe/d)

Canada's Leading Oil Producers (1000 boe/d) net of royalties
2012 9 Months 2011 9 Months
Oil NGas total Oil NGas total
boe mmcf boe mmcf
CNRL 380.291 206.046 1237 586.337 313.786 200.053 1200 513.839
Suncor 496.8 49.7 298 546.5 475.1 60.8 365 535.9
Encana Corp 29.3 498.9 2993 528.2 24.0 548.5 3291 572.5
Talisman Energy 137.0 221.0 1315 358.0 145.0 203.0 1215 348.0
Husky Energy 201.5 94.1 564.4 295.6 208.6 101.7 610.1 310.3
Imperial Oil 205.0 33.0 197 238.0 205.0 38.0 229.0 243.0
Cenovus (gross) 161.291 100.333 602 261.624 130.871 109.000 654 239.871
Nexen Inc 158.5 31.7 190 190.2 145.2 38.3 230 183.5
Penn West Petrol 105.848 57.787 347 163.635 101.569 59.602 358 161.171
Crescent Point 87.009 8.635 51.8 95.644 64.224 7.078 42.5 71.302
ARC Resources 35.967 56.847 341.1 92.814 31.267 49.250 295.5 80.517
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Proved + Probable Oil Reserves by company before/after royalties, meg:c=contingent res
Jan 2013
Gross Net
Oil NGas Total Oil NGas Total
Mboe Bcf Mboe Mboe Bcf Mboe
CNRL 6921 (4329) 5790 (4134) 7886 (5018)
Suncor 6686 (3957) 1128 (852) 6874 (4099) 5569 (3383) 960 (744) 5729 (3507)
Imperial Oil 3493 488 3574
Husky Energy 2370.2 (774.1) 3265.2 (2506.8) 2915.3 (1192) 1940.2 (671.3) 2932.4 (2245.3) 2428.9 (1045.5)
Cenovus 2853 (2016) 1293 (955.2) 3068.5 (2175)
Encana Corp 498.5 (282.5) 21218 (13390) 4034.8 (2514) 417.4 (240.4) 18209 (11617) 3452.2 (2176.6)
MEG Energy 6064c 6064c 2644 (1284) 2644 (1284)
Can.Oil.Sands 4600 4600 1700 1700
Nexen 2048 (860) 1065 (444) 2226 (934) 1758 (772) 1002 (420) 1925 (842)
Talisman 531.5 (310.9) 7069.1 (4678.9) 1709.7 (1090.7) 429.3 (249.2) 5654.7 (3748) 1371.8 (873.9)
Penn West 441 (289) 1186 (773) 676 (445) 379 (251) 1029 (680) 578 (384)
Crescent Point 557.068 (366.5) 310.373 (203.053) 608.797 (400.373) 468.256 (309.080) 281.453 (184.576) 539.497 (356.186)
proved reserves in (); all other data is proved + probable (2P)
2012 2011
Gross Net Gross Net
Oil NGas Total Oil NGas Total Oil NGas Total Oil NGas Total
Mboe Bcf Mboe Mboe Bcf Mboe Mboe Bcf Mboe Mboe Bcf Mboe
CNRL 6521 1017 7538 5257 890 6147 5941 5766 6902 4818 5088 5666
Suncor 6774 333 7107 5607 240 5847 6885 340 7225 5639 265 5904
Imperial Oil 3121 422 3191 2453 576 2549
Husky Energy 2347.4 3020.3 2850.8 1894.9 3023.6 2398.8
Cenovus 2395 1594 2661 2103 1800 2403
Encana Corp 153.8 15499 2737 133 13441 2373.2 109.3 16054 2785 93.3 13775 2389.2
Nexen Inc 2033 1628 2306 1775 1478 2021 1989 792 2120 1791 738 1914
Talisman 866.7 8136.6 2222.8 754.0 6632.2 1859.4

Only top 9 shown.  Canada is home many other major companies including MEG Energy (more reserves than all except CNRL, Suncor but MEG still qualifies as an exploration company (<60,000 boe/d);  Pacific Rubiales Energy (shares interset in oil fields responsible for a third of Colombian production), Crescent Point Energy, etc.  Calgary is home to over 2400 oil and gas companies.  Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec which manages among other things the Quebec pension plan, owns 5.9% of Enbridge ($2.7 billion), total interest in oil sands companies is $5.4 billion.

Crescent Point Energy major moves in 2012 boost total output by 34% (crude +35% ->89,704 bbls/d,  gas +25.7% -> 9,047 boe/d).  2012 deals: Jan 25 - adds 980 bpd in SW Manitoba, March 15 - Takeover of Wild Stream Exploration adds 5,400 bpd in Shaunavon, Saskatchewan, March 16 - Deal with PetroBakken involves 2,900 bpd light oil SE Saskatchewan, April 16 - Sells 900 boe/d 80% oil in Alberta, May 1 - Takeover of Reliable Energy Ltd and its 1,000 boe/d light oil resource in SW Manitoba, June 1 - Agreement closed involving 2,900 boe/d 98% oil, June 20 - Takeover of Cutpick Energy Inc and its 5,600 boe/d resource near Provost, Alberta (65% light oil), July 17 - Sells 225 boe/d natural gas assets.  How did all the moves impact annual sales? 2012 oil revenue +24% $2.643b, gas -15% $51.813b. Total revenue +23% even though average price realized down: oil -8.1% -> $80.51, gas -32.6% -> $2.61, total -8.3% -> $74.57. 

Syncrude April 30, 2013:  Unplanned outages reduce 2013 full year production estimate by 5% to 100 and 110 million boe.  Average daily production in the first quarter of 2013 was 260,400 boe/d (-12%).  2013 1q earnings down -44% on lower output and lower crude price (total revenue down -11% to $961m).  The company is part owned by Sinopec.  Core properties are joint ventures with Cnooc, Imperial Oil.

CNRL:  2012 reserve replacement ratio of 246% (5% increase in reserves equals 2.46X full year production); in 2011 the ratio was 390%.  2012 bitumen royalties of $4.34/bbl (+8.8%).  synthetic crude oil sands output : 2012 86,077 bbls/d +45,643.  fiscal 2012 production expense: company average : $13.14/bbl (+6%);  oil liquids $16.11/bbl (+2%), gas $1.31/mmcf (+14%); oil prod exp highest in North Sea ($53.53 +44%) lowest in North America ($13.4 +1%); gas prod exp highest in North Sea ($3.75 +0.92) lowest in North America ($1.28 +0.16). profit down 3/4 of a billion dollars after rising $1b in 2011.

Husky Energy HUSKF:  Major gas exploration project is in Liwan, China.  Husky Energy is also contemplating exploration in Greenland.  Has interests in White Rose (Canadian East Coast) which Suncor Energy owns 26.125% of.  2011 reserve replacement ratio: 180%.  Reserve life index now at 10.3 years.  Husky produces in western and atlantic canada.  International production comes from China Wenchang (light oil and ngls) - 8,300 b/d 9m2012 (8.6 last year)
9m2012:  average sales price realized for light crude oil and ngl:  -2% to $101.06 (from $103.15);  sales price for light crude oil was down significantly in the 3q2012 from $101.16  --> $90.5 bpd  but was stable for medium crude, heavy crude, and bitumen.  Natural gas was down $4.12 --> $2.48 (3q),  $4.00 --> $2.39 (9 months).

Talisman Energy TLM:  2011 reserve replacement ratio: 157% @ cost of $20/bbl.  Replacement costs -50% last 3 years. 

9M2012:  gross production 437th b/d (up from 421th)  vs 9m2011:  net production 358,000 (up from 348,000).
biggest difference between gross and net production:  southeast Asia  oil: gross 42,000 bpd (up from 33,000)  net:  25,000 (up from 15,000).  natural gas:  gross 529 mmcf/d (up from 505), net 364 mmcf/d (up from 353).

production from assets sold:  9M2012:  5,000 bpd (gross), 4,000 bpd (net)   9M2011:  8,000 (gross), 7,000 (net)

Talisman Energy fiscal 2012 - sold 49% of British operations to Sinopec for $2.5 billion (North Sea).  Also during the last three months of 2012 the company announced a major oil discovery in Kurdistan.  For the 2012 year, cash flow (-12.0% to $3.022b), earnings (-83.0% to $132m) down significantly.  Financials were down in 2012 due to 1) lower North Sea production 2) lower gas prices in North America 3) higher operating costs.  gross production: Oil 162th (-16th) + N.Gas 1582 bcf (+91) = 426 boe (steady)

Imperial Oil Esso IMO:  Between 2010 and 2011 the number of wells Imperial Oil had interests in declined significantly for natural gas (gross: 5372--> 2404, net: 2833--> 847) but went up for crude oil (gross: 883--> 1070, net 588--> 734).  Bitumen wells down also (4358--> 4068).  2011 exit-year 60% of net proved reserves (3.191 billion boe) are at undeveloped properties up from 47% in December 2010.  Today (2012) 77% of oil reserves are in bitumen, up from 70% in December 2010.  Feb 26, 2013:  IMO acquires a 50% working interest in assets formerly belonging to Celtic Exploration from ExxonMobil Canada ($1.55 billion).  76% of Celtic's 128m barrels of 2P reserves are in natural gas.

9m2012:  earnings up +13.7%:  $2366m --> $2690m  or $2.77 --> $3.16 per share.  gross production decreased (299,000 --> 281,000) due to planned maintenance at Cold Lake and Syncrude, and fewer natural gas assets than in 2011.
gross share of syncrude output:  75,000 bpd --> 70,000 bpd -- net share of syncrude:  70,000 --> 67,000

9m2012 gross -> net production: Cold Lake: 154 -> 120, Syncrude:  70 -> 67,  Conventional:  20 -> 15,  Natural Gas:  194 -> 197

Crescent Point Energy CPG:  Market cap is larger than Nexen and Penn West however production is much lower.  The company anticipates 2012 exit-year output of 93,000 boe/d, 90% light medium oil.
In January 2012 CPE acquired Wild Stream Exploration for $770M which immediately boosts CPE production by 4.4%.

Encana ECA:  On December 18, 2012 announced that it and Ferus LNG will build a 190,000 litre per day liquefied natural gas plant near grand prairie, Alberta.  when operational end of 2013 will be the first in Canada to produce high quality LNG fuel for use in high horsepower vehicles.
In 2011 Encana saved $12m by using natural gas instead of diesel in drilling units.
9m2012:  profit loss of $2.714 billion due to test impairments ($2.888 billion after tax), $1.244 billion in the quarter
.  60 cent dividend paid (20c each quarter).  natural gas price $4.75 per mmcf ($4.91 in 3Q).
9m2012:  cash flow declined -$505 million --> $2,728 million due to lower commodity prices and natural gas production volumes.  capex:  $2.696 billion down from $3.602 billion.

Acquisitions:  $361m worth of land in Canada and the United States (down from $468m last year)
divestures:  $2,698m  $2,505m of which were transactions involving the Canadian division;  sales of two natural gas processing plants in BC to Mitsubishi
and Toyota corporation.  Dec 2011:  sale of $836m assets in North Texas.

Nexen Inc:  Nexen's royalty rates paid on natural gas were highest in the USA, accounted for 7.9% of gross prod (126--> 116) vs 5.0% in Canada, 0% in UK.  Oil Royalties: UK was virtually nothing (104.9 gross --> 104.8 net), long lake bitumen (15.9--> 15.1), syncrude (21.2--> 19.6) usa (9.9--> 9.0).  Yemen remained the highest (41.3--> 23.1).  Feb 24: 1st oil from Usan field, offshore W.Africa.  2011: Nexen invested $2,516 m in oil and gas activities, causing reserves to increase 73M boe for proved, 175m boe for probable. 
Conventional oil:  Nexen's assets are in the North Sea, deep-water gulf of Mexico, offshore W.Africa.  Key international projects: Usan, Golden Eagle, Blackbird, Telford TAC, Rochelle.  International projects received 60.6% of capex in 2011 ($1525m/2,516) down from 63.6% in 2010 ($1598m/2513 in 2010).  Oil sands:  Capex in 2011 was $521m up from $347m in 2010.  Key assets are at Long Lake, Kinosis.  Shale gas:  BC, Canada, received $59m in capex (down from $211m).
Prior to 2011, the company reported no proved Bitumen reserves since Dec 31, 2008 when proved bitumen was 282M boe (net).
Netback per boe is highest at oil sands syncrude operations (C$55.85/boe, highest in 2nd qtr $57.99) and UK ($49.95/boe highest 2nd qtr at $54.52);  The UK will be the source of 52.9% of future revenue based on net present reserves using a discount rate of 10%, about 30% will be from Canada.  27% of production orginates in Canada with a lot of the rest coming from the North Sea.
July 24, 2012 UPDATE:  Nexen agrees to a $15.1 billion takeover (61% premium) by CNOOC of China.  The deal is the biggest foreign investment by China.  On December 7, 2012 Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper approved the takeover of Nexen by CNOOC.  He did however warn that future takeovers valued at more than $330 million involving state owned enterprises, likely will not be approved unless they are 'exceptional' circumstances.  He noted that the oil sands are home to 60% of global oil not under state control and that it is in Canada's interest for that not to change.  Canada's approval comes just after the European Union put its stamp of approval on the deal.

 
Nexen's realized prices: oil was highest in Yemen (108.11 up from 81.86).  Natural gas realized price was highest in UK (c$7.42/mmcf up from $5.28 in 2010).  In the USA ($4.21 -0.76) and Canada ($3.44 -0.50) it was low.

PennWest Petroleum PWE:  In early-mid 2012 the market price for Canadian oil (WCS) was as much as $25 lower than US oil prices making it more difficult for Canadian producers to adjust to lower overall prices.  In it's second quarter (2012) Penn West cited that as the main reason why net income was down -13.3% that quarter;  To adjust, the company layed out a new plan that involves capital spending cuts (-10%) and selling assets ($1.5 billion worth).  2012 full year production estimate was lowered from 168,500 - 172,500 bpd --> 165,000 - 168,500 bpd.

9M2012:  liquids make up 66% of production mix up from 63%.  netback -12.5% to $26.49 boe ($30.28).  capex -27% to $1,053m ($1,443).  risk lowered earnings from a gain of $138m in 3Q2011 to a loss of $67m in 3Q2012.  Quarterly dividend of 27 cents has been unchanged for over 2 years.
9M2012:  heavy oil :  17,534 bpd (-2%) or 10.7% of total production;  9M2011:  heavy oil:  17,894 or 11.1% of total production.

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ:  Production base is diverse and that enables it to withstand fluctuating commodity prices and regional production inconsistencies.  In 2011 average sales price of crude oil (net of transportation and blending costs) was $77.46/bbl +17.7% vs 2010 ($65.81/bbl).  Crude oil sales price was significantly higher in the 4q than the 3q ($85.28 vs $73.80) consequently royalties paid were also higher ($12.3/bbl over the fully year 2011 up from $10.09/bbl in 2010; $15.53 in 4q  up from $11.52 in the 3q).

2011 natural gas sales price down 8.6% to $3.73/Mcf ($4.08 in 2010) but unlike crude oil, natural gas price declined in the last quarter from the quarter prior to it ($3.50 vs $3.76).   Oil liquids netback increased in 2011 ($41.56--> $49.41) however ngas netback was lower ($2.79--> $2.40) pulled down mostly by 4q results (4q netback for gas was $2.17/Mcf).  Overall oil + gas netback +14.7% to $36.62 for the year, +20% in the 4q ($37.95).

Crude oil and natural gas prices were highest in the North Sea ($108.56 up from $82.49) and Offshore Africa ($105.53 up from $78.93) but still very low in North America ($72.17 up from $62.28) and that brought the company average up only 17.7% to $77.46 (from $65.81 in 2010).  Natural gas prices Offshore Africa were significantly higher at $9.56/Mcf ($6.63 in 2010) compared to only $3.64 and $4.07 in North America and North Sea, respectively.

CNRL profited nearly $1 billion more in 2011 than in 2010 ($2643 million +58%) even though revenue was up only +6.9% to $15.507b.  For the year, the company paid $294 million more in royalties ($1421--> $1715).

CNRL reserves December 2011:  4.83 billion boe of proved reserves (+7%).  2P: natural gas +25% North Sea (134 Bcf), -6.5% Offshore Africa (129 Bcf), +5.7% North America (5838 Bcf).  96% of production happened in G8 countries making the company's assets fairly stable.  2012 quarterly dividend will go up 17% (0.09 to 0.105).  In 2011 CNRL replaced 390% of its production and that caused a jump of 7% in proved reserves.

Note: Exports of natural gas from Canada require the approval of the NEB and Canadian government. Data in table is gross output before royalties. Pacific Rubiales Energy not listed because net production is much lower than it is for these nine companies (even though PRE gross production is greater than a few of them).

Cenovus Energy CVE:  oil production anticipated to grow 14% in 2013,  oil sands production up 44% in 3Q2012 to 95,000 bpd
9m2012:  net earnings stable at $1,111m ($1,212m), capex:  $2,434m +32% ($1,842)
Dec - Sep 2012 Assets:  Total Assets +9.9% to $24,384m  ------ exploration and evaluation assets +44.2% to $1,269m.
Christina Lake:  net to Cenovus production reached a single day high of 43,500 boe/d (avg 32,000 in 3Q2012)
3q2012 gross oil production:  +28% to 171,350 b/d;  gas -12% to 577 mmcf/d.

table above: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd total proved bitumen reserves +9% to 1.066b (2P +23% 2.122b), oil sands production more than doubled to 86,077.  Candian Oil Sands reserve life based on 2012 production is 42 years (110 million barrels 40.4m net).  Cdn Oil Sands averaged 290th bpd output over last 6 years; 2012 production 286,500 bpd (104.9m barrels total) down from 288,400 (105.3m total) despite capex +68.9% to $1.086 billion.  MEG Energy Christina Lake can support production capacity of 200th for 30 years, Surmont 100th for 20 years.

                                                                                       Updated March 2013